NOAA expects busy hurricane season during 2013
Jeremy Lile
Ready or not, the Atlantic hurricane season has arrived. The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30, and includes the Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf Of Mexico.
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Prediction Center, an active or extremely active season is forecasted for this year. NOAA’s season outlook shows there is a 70 percent likelihood of 13 to 20 named storms with winds of 39 mph or higher, of which 7 to 11 could become hurricanes with winds of 74 mph or higher, including 3 to 6 major hurricanes that would be classified as category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher. NOAA reports that these ranges are well above the seasonal average of 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes.
Jim and Ann Forbes have been volunteers for the United States Weather Service for the past 45 years. In an interview on Friday, Forbes stated, “I kind of think that predicting these hurricanes is about like a lottery system. They have a little ball come down with a number on the ball and that’s the number of hurricanes. Because I know for so many years, they would predict a great big a bunch and only got a few. Then they would predict a lesser amount and we got a greater amount. I think when you predict hurricanes, its just an educated guess.”
NOAA provided three climate factors that will strongly control Atlantic hurricane activity. First of all, a continuation of the atmospheric climate pattern, which includes a strong west African monsoon, that is responsible for the ongoing era of high activity for Atlantic hurricanes that began in 1995; secondly, the warmer than average water temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea; and thirdly, El Niño is not expected to develop and suppress hurricane formation. Forbes added “The gulf is so susceptible to hurricanes because of the warm water year round, then you get a cold front down in there and it can stir up anything.”
During the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season, nineteen named storms formed, of which ten became hurricanes. Hurricane Michael was the only one of the ten that reached major hurricane status. NOAA indicates that while hurricane activity for 2012 was well above the 30 year average for named storms and hurricanes, it was below average for major hurricanes.
Hurricanes can form with little or no notice. Therefore, every home, workplace, and local business need to establish an emergency plan. It is important to know what safety measures should be taken if friends and family are not together when disaster strikes. Having an official emergency plan will also be helpful in the event it becomes necessary to evacuate. Likewise, setting up an emergency kit will be beneficial if the water, gas, electricity or phone services are shut off. Preparing for the unexpected is literally a matter of life and death.
Forbes concluded, “This hurricane season could be very, very interesting but I hope they are way wrong on the number. None of the gulf coast needs a hurricane.”
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Prediction Center, an active or extremely active season is forecasted for this year. NOAA’s season outlook shows there is a 70 percent likelihood of 13 to 20 named storms with winds of 39 mph or higher, of which 7 to 11 could become hurricanes with winds of 74 mph or higher, including 3 to 6 major hurricanes that would be classified as category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher. NOAA reports that these ranges are well above the seasonal average of 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes.
Jim and Ann Forbes have been volunteers for the United States Weather Service for the past 45 years. In an interview on Friday, Forbes stated, “I kind of think that predicting these hurricanes is about like a lottery system. They have a little ball come down with a number on the ball and that’s the number of hurricanes. Because I know for so many years, they would predict a great big a bunch and only got a few. Then they would predict a lesser amount and we got a greater amount. I think when you predict hurricanes, its just an educated guess.”
NOAA provided three climate factors that will strongly control Atlantic hurricane activity. First of all, a continuation of the atmospheric climate pattern, which includes a strong west African monsoon, that is responsible for the ongoing era of high activity for Atlantic hurricanes that began in 1995; secondly, the warmer than average water temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea; and thirdly, El Niño is not expected to develop and suppress hurricane formation. Forbes added “The gulf is so susceptible to hurricanes because of the warm water year round, then you get a cold front down in there and it can stir up anything.”
During the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season, nineteen named storms formed, of which ten became hurricanes. Hurricane Michael was the only one of the ten that reached major hurricane status. NOAA indicates that while hurricane activity for 2012 was well above the 30 year average for named storms and hurricanes, it was below average for major hurricanes.
Hurricanes can form with little or no notice. Therefore, every home, workplace, and local business need to establish an emergency plan. It is important to know what safety measures should be taken if friends and family are not together when disaster strikes. Having an official emergency plan will also be helpful in the event it becomes necessary to evacuate. Likewise, setting up an emergency kit will be beneficial if the water, gas, electricity or phone services are shut off. Preparing for the unexpected is literally a matter of life and death.
Forbes concluded, “This hurricane season could be very, very interesting but I hope they are way wrong on the number. None of the gulf coast needs a hurricane.”
